Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “ Georgia—an open seat—is the clearest Democratic pickup opportunity”
Today, Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved Georgia’s gubernatorial race to Toss-Up, calling it the “clearest Democratic pickup opportunity” in 2026. This is just the latest sign that Georgians are ready to turn the page on more than 20 years of GOP rule, and follows a series of recent overperformances in special elections all across the state that have given Georgia Democrats a wave of momentum in the lead-up to this critical race.
This also comes on the heels of National Journal naming Georgia as Democrats’ best chance to flip a governor’s seat in 2026.
“The American Dream in Georgia is far less attainable than when Republicans came into power here 23 years ago – and it’s clear now that Georgians are eager to turn the page on their cost-raising, health care-cutting chaos. With the GOP field locked in a messy and expensive primary battle that shows just how out-of-touch they are with the people of our state, Georgia Democrats have never been more confident that Georgians are ready to elect a strong Democratic governor who will put them and their families first rather than the billionaires and big corporations,” said Democratic Party of Chair Charlie Bailey.
As Georgia Democrats work to make life more affordable, the GOP gubernatorial field could not be more out-of-touch with working Georgians. Their primary is a raucous race to the right, with Jones, Jackson, Raffensperger, and Carr all staking out extreme positions that are deeply unpopular with the people of Georgia. They all support DC Republicans’ cost-raising agenda – even as Georgians are now spending $1,200 more annually to keep up with the skyrocketing cost-of-living – and also support the very same job-killing policies that resulted in nearly 1,000 Georgians losing their jobs at the SK Battery plant in Commerce earlier this month.
And even as Georgia faces a health care crisis, all of the GOP candidates strongly support Trump’s budget bill that has resulted in 1.4 million Georgians now paying $860 more on average each month to cover the cost of health care. All of the GOP candidates also oppose Medicaid expansion, which has caused nine rural hospitals to close since 2010, and support Georgia’s extreme abortion ban, resulting in a maternal mortality crisis sweeping the state.
But as families suffer, Jones, Jackson, Raffensperger, and Carr would rather fight each other than fight for Georgians in what has become the messiest and most expensive GOP primary in recent state history. Jackson and Jones in particular have committed to spending over $65 million to destroy each other in a nasty ad war playing out across the airwaves that has become part of the “spectacular MAGA breakup” rocking the state. No matter who the GOP nominee is, they’ll limp into the general election – and Georgia Democrats are confident we will elect a strong Democratic governor in November.
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